March 17 Snowstorm!

Posted Tuesday March 18, 2008

Category: Weather

Sunday 6 pm: The Bid Daddy snow storm of the year for Denver is about to hit. This is what I have been waiting all year for. There should be at least 6 inches of snow across the Denver area tonight. A very nice surge of PVA will bring strong dynamic uplift. Upslope flow and moisture advection will insure a big snow as the upper level divergence surges overhead. Here is a look at the vort max advecting over.

I am ready for some white gold to fall from the sky!! This is going to be awesome.

Vorticity Advection Forecast over Colorado

Sunday 6:30 pm: Snow starts developing

The event begins

Sunday 7:45 pm: Snow starts falling in Brighton, CO. It is coming down light to moderate and melting as it falls.

Monday: Well, it ended up being a bust. Some snow did fall though. Only 1 inch at the airport and about 3 inches at my place.

Post-analysis: A big bust for the Denver metro. Most of the snow fell before midnight. 1 to 4 inches fell across the Denver metro. The surface low was not able to sustain an upslope flow with moisture advection. Once the upper level trough rotating through, the precipitation decreased despite the upper level dynamics. Basically, the low stayed disorganized and the upslope wind ceased. No upslope = snow machine turns off for Denver. Snowfall and QPF amounts ended up well below the models, NWS and my prediction. Depressing! Only 1 inch of snow at the airport. You got to be kidding me. I did at least get 3 inches at my place (and I live just about 10 miles from the airport). What I could have done to improve the forecast was to pay more attention to the low level wind field. I put too much faith in the upper level dynamics and busted as a result.